Williams, K., K. C. Ewel, R. P. Stumpf, F. E. Putz, and T. W. Workman, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the West Coast of Florida, USA. Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. Clark, J. S., L. Iverson, C. W. Woodall, C. D. Allen, D. M. Bell, D. C. Bragg, A. W. D'Amato, F. W. Davis, M. H. Hersh, I. Ibanez, S. T. Jackson, S. Matthews, N. Pederson, M. Peters, M. W. Schwartz, K. M. Waring, and N. E. Zimmermann, 2016: The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States. Mitsch, W. J., and J. G. Gosselink, 2007: Wetlands. Jenkins, C. N., K. S. Van Houtan, S. L. Pimm, and J. O. Sexton, 2015: US protected lands mismatch biodiversity priorities. Kunkel, K.L.M. Harrigan, R. J., H. A. Thomassen, W. Buermann, and T. B. Smith, 2014: A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change. Kirkman, L. K., R. J. Mitchell, R. C. Helton, and M. B. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC. Downsides of this population gain include higher costs of living driven by increased demand for housing and greater traffic congestion. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 073. Amekudzi, A., M. Crane, D. Springstead, D. Rose, and T. Batac, 2013: Transit climate change adaptation assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. Doney, S. C., M. Ruckelshaus, J. E. Duffy, J. P. Barry, F. Chan, C. A. English, H. M. Galindo, J. M. Grebmeier, A. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1. Traditionally their economies are resource-based, dependent on harvesting or extracting natural resources with little or no processing. 6: Forests, KM 3 for additional discussion on forest change impacts on rural landscapes. EPA, 2015: Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action. A. Sorrie, A. S. Weakley, D. B. Decreasing costs of transport and communication have been a boon to rural areas, yet the quality of these infrastructures continues to be inconsistent. 20: U.S. Caribbean).33,34 The Southeast is also the region with the greatest projected increase in cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease under both a lower and higher scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).35,36, Poor air quality directly impacts human health, resulting in respiratory disease and other ailments. 20: U.S. Caribbean, Box 20.1 and KM 5).84. Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, K. M. Hart, R. W. Snow, M. R. Rochford, M. E. Dorcas, and R. N. Reed, 2011: Cold-induced mortality of invasive Burmese pythons in south Florida. ), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts. The U.S. East Coast, for example, already has 7,508 miles of roadways, including over 400 miles of interstate roadways, currently threatened by high tide coastal flooding (Ch. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Costanza, J., S. Beck, M. Pyne, A. Terando, M. J. Rubino, R. White, and Jaime Collazo, 2016: Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the Southeastern United States. B., B. H. Lidz, J. H. Hudson, and J. S. Anderson, 2015: A century of ocean warming on Florida Keys coral reefs: Historic in situ observations. 2: Climate, Figure 2.4). Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018: Southeast. Williams, J. W., and S. T. Jackson, 2007: Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. A. Tallahassee, FL, 113 pp. This increase in flood frequency suggests the need to considerrevising flood study techniques and standards that are currently used to design and build coastal infrastructure. Burkett, M., R. R. M. Verchick, and D. Flores, 2017: Reaching higher ground: Avenues to secure and manage new land for communities displaced by climate change. Sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of coastal, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems to tidal saline habitats. Pan, Z., R. W. Arritt, E. S. Takle, W. J. Gutowski Jr., C. J. Anderson, and M. Segal, 2004: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a warming hole.. Infrastructure, particularly roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage, is vulnerable to climate change and climate-related events (see Key Message 2) (see also Ch. ERS, 2017: Atlas of Rural and Small-Town America [web tool]. Berdanier, A. It is estimated that with a meter (about 3.3 feet) of sea level rise, the Southeast would lose over 13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites and more than 1,000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places.66 This includes many historic buildings and forts in cities like Charleston, Savannah, and St. Augustine. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges to human health. Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems that provide many societal benefits, including coastal protection from waves, habitat for fish, and recreational and tourism opportunities.238,239 However, coral reef mortality in the Florida Keys and across the globe has been very high in recent decades, due in part to warming ocean temperatures, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, and coastal development.240,241,242,243,244 Small increases in ocean temperature can cause corals to expel the symbiotic algae upon which they depend for nourishment. Acadiana Planning Commission, 2018: APC Board allocates $25 million in HMGP funding to regional flood mitigation projects. Mayor's Office of Sustainability, Atlanta, GA, 48 pp. The interactions of altered precipitation and natural disturbances will be important in understanding impacts to the forests not dominated by industrial forestry (Ch. 2019. Hsiang, S., R. Kopp, A. Jina, J. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems.7 Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10 In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5)11 suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH19. The Coastal Plains have a varied economy. EPA, 2017: Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. For example, the Louisville, Kentucky, metro government conducted an urban heat management study and installed 145,000 square feet of cool roofs as part of their goal to lessen the risk of climate change impacts.28, The transmission of vector-borne diseases, which are spread by the bite of an animal such as a mosquito or tick, is complex and depends on a number of factors, including weather and climate, vegetation, animal host populations, and human activities (Ch. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, 37 pp. AJC Staff, 2017: Gov. ERS, 2018: Rural Poverty & Well-Being: Geography of Poverty. Abatzoglou, J. T., and A. P. Williams, 2016: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. The goal: to restore the Rhine and Meuse systems flood plain and allow the restored natural river landscape to safely manage water flow in times of excess capacity. Grace, 2016: Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change. Lal, P., J. R. R. Alavalapati, and E. D. Mercer, 2011: Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States. NWS, What Are Heating and Cooling Degree Days [web page]. These perigean tides, also known as king tides, occur twice a year and in many cities are causing what has been called nuisance or recurrent flooding (referred to herein as high tide flooding). Diop, E. S., A. Soumare, N. Diallo, and A. Guisse, 1997: Recent changes of the mangroves of the Saloum River Estuary, Senegal. Desantis, L. R. G., S. Bhotika, K. Williams, and F. E. Putz, 2007: Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. WebThe Southeastern Coastal Plain is located between the Piedmont to the north and the Atlantic Ocean to the east and covers a large portion of the southeastern United States. Throughout the southeastern United States, the impacts of sea level rise, increasing temperatures, extreme heat events, heavy precipitation, and decreased water availability continue to have numerous consequences for human health, the built environment, and the natural world. Coastal Plains Trucking, LLC Kunkel, K., R. Frankson, J. Runkle, S. Champion, L. Stevens, D. Easterling, and Brooke Stewart, 2017: State Climate Summaries for the United States. Coastal plains Industries? - Answers Lovett, H. B., S. B. Snider, K. K. Gore, and R. C. Muoz, Eds., 2016: Luce, C. H., J. M. Vose, N. Pederson, J. Campbell, C. Millar, P. Kormos, and R. Woods, 2016: Contributing factors for drought in United States forest ecosystems under projected future climates and their uncertainty. Jane Harrison, North Carolina Sea Grants coastal economist, has published four editions online, including this issue on rural economic development. USDA, National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), Washington, DC, accessed July 18, 2017. High tide coastal flooding has started to inundate these low-lying roads, restricting access during certain times of the day and causing public safety concerns. Southeastern Coastal Plain and Piedmont Global sea level is very likely to rise by 0.30.6 feet by 2030, 0.51.2 feet by 2050, and 1.04.3 feet by 2100 under a range of scenarios from very low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5),51,52,62 which would result in increases in both the depth and frequency of coastal flooding (Figure 19.7).51 Under higher emissions scenarios (RCP8.5), global sea level rise exceeding 8 feet (and even higher in the Southeast) by 2100 cannot be ruled out.51 By 2050, many Southeast cities are projected to experience more than 30 days of high tide flooding regardless of scenario.63 In addition, more extreme coastal flood events are also projected to increase in frequency and duration.60 For example, water levels that currently have a 1% chance of occurring each year (known as a 100-year event) will be more frequent with sea level rise. Isle de Jean Charles is a narrow island in the bayous of South Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, and home to the Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw, a tribal community already living the day-to-day impacts of land loss, sea level rise, and coastal flooding. When this happens, corals lose their color and die in a process known as coral bleaching (Ch. Guyana Industries | Friends & RPCVs of Guyana Seasonal warming has varied. Case Study: Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting for Sea Level Rise, Case Study: A Lesson Learned for Community Resettlement: Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe, Case Study: Coastal and Inland Impacts of Extreme Rainfall. 2 Goetz, Stephan J., Partridge, Mark D., and Heather M. Stephens. 2: Our Changing Climate. Rep. WO-91. Adaptation, mitigation, and planning efforts are emphasizing co-benefits (positive benefits related to the reduction of greenhouse gases or implementation of adaptation efforts) to help boost the economy while protecting people and infrastructure. Southeastern cities including Memphis and Raleigh have a particularly high future heat risk.25, The number of days with high minimum temperatures (nighttime temperatures that stay above 75F) has been increasing across the Southeast (Figure 19.1), and this trend is projected to intensify, with some areas experiencing more than 100 additional warm nights per year by the end of the century (Figures 19.4 and 19.5). A. Whittington, and R. Paperno, 2016: Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida. In addition to plants, warmer winter air temperatures will also affect the movement and interactions between many different kinds of organisms. Rural America is comprised of three distinct areas: (1) high-amenity rural regions, (2) urban- adjacent rural places, and (3) remote rural communities.2 It is the last that has typically struggled, while rural areas with high amenities and access to urban labor markets generally experience greater population and economic growth than their remote counterparts. Even the most remote rural areas are less isolated than in the past, with ever stronger ties to international markets and labor. Multimodel averages of climate model simulations (CMIP3 [SRES A2] and CMIP5 [RCP8.5] higher scenarios) show that there is a greater risk of drier summers by the middle of the century in the western portion of the Southeast and in southern Florida, while wetter fall seasons are more likely in the eastern portion of the region.257. Kelleway, J. J., K. Cavanaugh, K. Rogers, I. C. Feller, E. Ens, C. Doughty, and N. Saintilan, 2017: Review of the ecosystem service implications of mangrove encroachment into salt marshes. Capital consists of the monetary resources available to invest in a business or to purchase goods. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 4).8,9,10 Reducing stress associated with these factors can increase household and community resilience.9,284. Since then, cities like Charleston, South Carolina, have started to invest in flood management activities (see Case Study Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting). B. Meylan, P. A. Meylan, J. The precise impacts on cities are difficult to project. For example, a rural municipality can increase tax rates to benefit local schools. The Southeast has the second highest number of farmworkers hired per year compared to other National Climate Assessment (NCA) regions.251 Climate trends and possible climate futures show patterns that are already impactingand are expected to further impactrural sectors, from agriculture and forestry to human health and labor productivity (Ch. Deal: Virtually the entire state to be impacted by Irma.. This is the only watershed-level hazard mitigation collaboration of this kind happening in the state and has the support of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, and the Louisiana Office of Community Development.96, Many communities in the Southeast also participate in FEMAs Community Rating System (CRS) program, which provides reduced flood insurance premiums to communities that go above and beyond the minimum National Flood Insurance Program regulation standards.97 Many communities require a safety factor, also known as freeboard, expressed as feet above the base flood elevation, for construction in special flood hazard areas. 13: Air Quality, KM 1). go.ncsu.edu/Blue-Economy. Regional economic integration depends upon robust market relationships and communications between rural and urban areas. Browse our library of product data sheets containing technical descriptions and details. In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices.3,4,5,6. The decade of the 2010s through 2017 is the warmest in all seasons for average daily minimum temperature and in winter and spring for average daily maximum temperature. (See the counties in orange in Figure 2). When these cities experience high tide coastal flooding due to perigean tides, the tidewater enters the storm water system, which prevents rainwater from entering storm drains and causes increased impacts from flooding. These days can be added up over timea month or a yearto give a combined estimate of energy needed for heating or cooling. In western South America, a large coastal plain lies between the Andes Mountains and the Pacific Ocean. By the end of the century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), projections indicate approximately double the number of heavy rainfall events (2-day precipitation events with a 5-year return period) and a 21% increase in the amount of rain falling on the heaviest precipitation days (days with a 20-year return period).19,81 These projected increases would directly affect the vulnerability of the Southeasts coastal and low-lying areas. Sea level rise has put these transportation connection points at risk. For example, oyster farmers must locate their operations in waters with appropriate salinity levels, but this coastal environment cannot easily be replicated artificially. Although heating costs are expected to decrease as the climate warms in the Southeast, the number of cooling degree days is expected to increase and the length of the cooling season expected to expand, increasing energy demand and exacerbating rural energy poverty (Figure 19.22). Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss, 2012: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment. The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern (and highest) portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. Island Press, Washington, DC,. Climatic conditions are currently suitable for adult mosquitoes of the species Aedes aegypti, which can spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, across most of the Southeast from July through September (Figure 19.6), and cities in South Florida already have suitable conditions for year-round mosquito activity. Although the appearance of tropical recreational fish, like snook for example, may be favorable for some anglers, the movement of tropical marine species is expected to greatly modify existing food webs and ecosystems (Ch. Krakauer, N. Y., 2012: Estimating climate trends: Application to United States plant hardiness zones. Salary Search: Veterinary Assistant/Technician salaries in El Campo, TX. Woodroffe, C. D., and J. Grindrod, 1991: Mangrove biogeography: The role of quaternary environmental and sea-level change. 3: Water, KM 2).. Water utilities across the Southeast are preparing for these impacts. Some figures and images are copyright protected. van der Wiel, K., S. B. Kapnick, G. J. van Oldenborgh, K. Whan, S. Philip, G. A. Vecchi, R. K. Singh, J. Arrighi, and H. Cullen, 2017: Rapid attribution of theAugust 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Newman, S., M. Carroll, P. Jakes, and L. Higgins, 2014: Hurricanes and wildfires: Generic characteristics of community adaptive capacity. The combined effects of rising numbers of high tide flooding and extreme rainfall events, along with deteriorating storm water infrastructure, are increasing the frequency and magnitude of coastal and lowland flood events.45,88,89,90, The recent increases in flood risk have led many cities and counties to take adaptive actions to reduce these effects. The remaining costs would address losses in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.84 The losses could have been worse except for the fact that Florida has implemented one of the strictest building codes in the country after the destruction caused by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.111 Recent estimates using insured loss data show that implementing the Florida Building Code resulted in a 72% reduction of windstorm losses, and for every $1 in added cost to implement the building code, there is a savings of $6 in reduced losses, with the return or payback period being roughly 8 years (in 2010 dollars).111. De Jess Crespo, R., P. Mndez Lzaro, and S. H. Yee, 2018: Linking wetland ecosystem services to vector-borne disease: Dengue fever in the San Juan Bay Estuary, Puerto Rico. FEMA, 2016: Community Rating System (CRS) Communities and Their Classes. Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of all natural systems (Ch. Butterworth, M. K., C. W. Morin, and A. C. Comrie, 2017: An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Douglas, E., J. Jacobs, K. Hayhoe, L. Silka, J. Daniel, M. Collins, A. Alipour, B. Anderson, C. Hebson, E. Mecray, R. Mallick, Q. Zou, P. Kirshen, H. Miller, J. Kartez, L. Friess, A. Stoner, E. Bell, C. Schwartz, N. Thomas, S. Miller, B. Eckstrom, and C. Wake, 2017: Progress and challenges in incorporating climate change information into transportation research and design. Federal Transit Administration, Washington, DC, 49 pp. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. NOAA, Georgia Sea Grant, Athens, GA, 82 pp. 20: U.S. Caribbean, KM 3).204 With higher sea levels and increasing saltwater intrusion, the high winds, high precipitation rates, storm surges, and salts that accompany hurricanes will have large ecological impacts to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.209,210, An example of the effects of rising sea levels can be found in Louisiana, which faces some of the highest land loss rates in the world. USGCRP, 2016: The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. WebCoastal Plain (Tidewater) Region - Products: Tobacco products, informational technology - Industries: Federal and state government, farming, horse industry Piedmont Region - Products: Apples - Industries: Recreation, farming Blue Ridge Mountains - Products: Poultry, apples, dairy, beef - Industries: Farming Valley and Ridge Region The ecological resources that people depend on for livelihoods, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk from the impacts of climate change. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Flood Insurance Program, . The Coastal Plains has other resources such as fish, grain, citrus fruits, poultry, and helium is also produced there. Sweet, W. V., J. J. Marra, and GregoryDusek, 2017: 2016StateofU.S.HighTideFloodinganda2017Outlook. USDA, Forest Service, Washington Office, Washington, DC, 218 pp. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Kozlowski, T. T., and S. G. Pallardy, 1997: Growth Control in Woody Plants. Drummond, M. A., and T. R. Loveland, 2010: Land-use pressure and a transition to forest-cover loss in the eastern United States. Lovelock, C. E., I. C. Feller, R. Reef, S. Hickey, and M. C. Ball, 2017: Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels. Summer increases in dengue cases are expected across every state in the Southeast. One of the big industries in the Coastal Plains is forestry. While recent regional temperature trends have not shown the same consistent rate of daytime maximum temperature increase as observed in other parts of the United States, climate model simulations strongly suggest that daytime maximum temperatures are likely to increase as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.13 The resulting temperature increases are expected to add to the heat health burden in rural, as well as urban, areas.35 Projected temperature increases also pose challenges for crop production dependent on periods of lower temperatures to reach full productivity. Chavez-Ramirez, F., and W. Wehtje, 2012: Potential impact of climate change scenarios on whooping crane life history. Charleston experienced all-time record high tide flood occurrences in 2015 (38 days) and 2016 (50 days).52,58 By 2045, Charleston is projected to experience up to 180 high tide flood events a year.1 The City of Charleston estimated that each flood event that affects the crosstown costs $12.4 million (in 2009 dollars). Houser, T., S. Hsiang, R. Kopp, K. Larsen, M. Delgado, A. Jina, M. Mastrandrea, S. Mohan, R. Muir-Wood, D. J. Rasmussen, J. Mitchum, G. T., 2011: Sea Level Changes in the Southeastern United States: Past, Present and Future. An analysis of ecological changes that have occurred in the past can help provide some context for anticipating and preparing for future ecological changes. Irma was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph wind speeds when it made landfall at Cudjoe Key, Florida (20 miles north of Key West). Already, in response to climate change, plant hardiness zones in certain areas are moving northward and are expected to continue their northward and upslope progression.139,142,146,147 Continued reductions in the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes are expected to change which species are able to survive and thrive in a given location (Figure 19.15). A closer look at the August 2016 event in Louisiana provides an example of how vulnerable inland communities in the Southeast region are to these extreme rainfall events. The regions more temperate ecosystems include hardwood forests, spruce-fir forests, pine-dominated forests, and salt marshes. Gregg, R. M., W. A. Reynier, A. A., L. S. Kutner, and J. S. Adams, Eds., 2000: Precious Heritage: The Status of Biodiversity in the United States. Maycock, and B.C. City of Atlanta, 2017: Resilient Atlanta: Actions to build a more equitable future. Duehl, A. J., F. H. Koch, and F. P. Hain, 2011: Southern pine beetle regional outbreaks modeled on landscape, climate and infestation history. For example, the distribution of tropical herbivorous fish has been expanding in response to warmer waters, which has resulted in the tropicalization of some temperate marine ecosystems and decreases in the cover of valuable macroalgal plant communities.179 A decrease in the growth of sea turtles in the West Atlantic has been linked to higher ocean temperatures.237 The impacts to coral reef ecosystems have been and are expected to be particularly dire.